Degrees of Doubt

April 2009

Questioning science is a good thing. It's how science works; a hypothesis is put forth. Based on observation and experiment, it is then open to challenges from other scientists. Can they duplicate the results of the experiments? Do these results support the stated conclusions? Are there alternate explanations for the results?

That being said, it is obvious that there comes a time when enough study has been done about certain theories that any debate about them can be (at least provisionally) set aside. For instance: We needn't question the theory that the sun will rise in the east tomorrow, or the theory that the Earth is round, not flat. And of course, having to make clear that labeling something a "theory" does not, in scientific parlance, indicate doubt is one of the ongoing frustrations in debating creationists.

But I say "provisionally" because science is always open to new evidence, new observations if they call into question the current mode of thinking. If a paleontologist were to suddenly find human fossils in the same geological layers as dinosaur fossils, it would be a kick to the groin of evolutionary theory. But in 200 years of digging, that hasn't happened, so scientists are pretty secure in continuing to accept evolution.

Yes, some scientists continue to question global warming theory. Its status is not as certain as round-earth theory or evolution theory.

There are degrees of doubt about anything. An important message of one of my favorite movies, Contact, Is that even science has to eventually make certain assumptions "on faith" (namely that what our senses are telling us is real). Because the Jodie Foster character is the lone observer of what she experiences, she can't prove it really happened.

So when I approach questions of what to believe, I ask myself: "What does the preponderance of scientific study suggest?" When I learned to ask myself that question is when I began to doubt the existence of God, UFO's, pyramid energy, psychic powers, etc. None of us has the ability to independently examine every item of discovery, conduct our own experiments, or even learn how to conduct all of the possible tests. So we rely on the experts, and their accumulated knowledge. But the time to doubt an "expert" is when he's the only one, or one of the few, to draw a particular conclusion. Remember "cold fusion?"

So those who doubt what the preponderance of scientific study suggests need to honestly examine why they doubt it. If their motivations are political or religious, it obviously calls into question their objectivity. And in that case, their doubt is unwarranted.

--Jerry Petersen
Central Ohio Humanist
March/April 2009